The Open-Source War - New York Times

The Open-Source War - New York Times:

The Open-Source War

By JOHN ROBB
Published: October 15, 2005

IN September, the Defense Department floated a solicitation for a company to build a “system of metrics to accurately assess U.S. progress in the war on terrorism” and make suggestions on how to improve the effort. As a software executive and former Air Force counterterrorist operative, I began thinking: how would I build this system and what would I recommend?

My first task would be to gauge our progress in Iraq. It is now, for better or worse, the epicenter of the war on terrorism. By most measurements, the war is going badly.

As so often the case, the metric design assumes a debatable theory of the problem. The administration’s stated theory of terrorism is to bring the war to the enemy and force them to fight on their terrain, not ours. Under this theory, the key metric would be number of attacks on American soil since 9/11, which is zero. While I do not regard the “on their soil” theory as a completely satisfactory explanation of the events of the last four years, Robb is wrong not to mention it. As anyone who has played with metrics knows, they can tell you a great deal, but only if you ask the right questions.

Update: e-mail from John Robb, who didn’t quite get my point, which is that his metric is flawed on theoretical grounds, just as Bush’s is. I told him:

Right, I’m not saying it’s a perfect metric.

The *real* metric that explains Bush’s actions since 9/11 is probably something like:

Number of nation-states that occupy central position in MidEast geography, possess vast oil reserves, and are run by a megalomaniac who a) openly defies US power and b) tried to assassinate my father:

Dec 2001: 1
Dec 2002: 1
Dec 2003: 0
Dec 2004: 0
Dec 2005: 0

Viola! “Success.”

The problem with Robb’s metric is that by assuming that Iraq is the epicenter of the war on terrorism, he is locking himself into a debatable view of that war. In one view, Iraq is, essentially, a secondary front, a distraction to keep jihadis busy while the real work of Tom Barnett’s globalization goes on.

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