WSJ on authors’ “death spiral”

Now that retailers can track books sales speedily and efficiently with point-of-sale technology, the entire publishing world knows when an author’s commercial performance takes a dive. For these unfortunate scribblers, such a sales record makes it hard to get good advances and big orders from bookstores. So some are adopting an unusual strategy: adopting an alias — even one of the opposite sex.

Two decades ago, the book industry largely relied on guesswork as it decided what to publish and sell. Editors could keep promoting promising authors, even if sales were weak. When they finally wrote a “breakout” title, their catalog of older books would become valuable.

These days, publishing veterans talk about “the death spiral” of authors’ careers. A first novel generates terrific reviews and good sales, but with each succeeding book, sales get weaker and the chains cut their orders until they don’t stock any at all.

“You’re only as good as your last book’s sales to much of the retail market,” says New York literary agent Richard Pine, a principal in Inkwell Management LLC.

This entertaining color article in today’s Wall Street Journal never goes beyond anecdote. I expect more from the Journal. They have the resources to use BookScan to run the numbers so that we would learn exactly how many fiction authors are affected by this downward spiral phenomenon.

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