October 23, 2006

http://www.last.fm/music/Madeleine+Peyroux

http://www.last.fm/music/Madeleine+Peyroux

He’s not all that humble.

I saw him on Larry King Live when Audacity of Hope was released.  Larry King asked him whether he would consider running for President.

Obama wasn’t very coy.  He told a funny story about how every U.S. Senator wakes up in the morning and sees a future President in the mirror.

It was the non-verbals that really struck me.   His grin got bigger, and I thought to myself, “there is someone whose head has been turned.”

Pro: humble people don’t usually become President.

Con:  he might as well have painted a bulls-eye on his back.  How long does he think it will take for Bill and Hillary Clinton to figure out a way to take Obama down a peg?

 

Jill Zuckman, writing in the Chicago Tribune, neatly summarized the evolution of his thinking about running for President:

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Last January, on "Meet the Press," Obama told Russert, "I will serve out my full six-year term," adding that his thinking had not changed since he took office.

"So you will not run for president or vice president in 2008?" Russert asked.

"I will not," Obama said.

In May, he told the Tribune that "there are people who think I should make an announcement tomorrow that I'm running for the presidency.”

"I tell them," he said, "that I'm focusing on my job as a senator from Illinois."

Now, however, he has told Time that he will revisit the question in November.

"When the election is over and my book tour is done, I will think about how I can be most useful to the country and how I can reconcile that with being a good dad and a good husband," Obama said. "I haven't completely decided or unraveled that puzzle yet."

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Pro: a successful President must be flexible enough to reconsider policy in light of changing events.  (Are you listening, George W. Bush?)

Con:  the guy’s a standard-issue politico, just like McCain said in the ethics flap in 2005.

Oprah tries to catch Obama in a lie, and he responds with a  classic politician’s story that makes him look like a saint, but, alas, is completely uncheckable.

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WINFREY: Senator Obama is here and his new back is called "The Audacity of Hope." This summer, the senator traveled with his family to Africa. I offered him a ride. He wouldn't take it on my plane. And then I later read in the book you did take a ride on somebody else's jet. Whose jet was that?

Sen. OBAMA: Well, that was before we took that trip to Africa.

WINFREY: Uh-huh.

Sen. OBAMA: But you know, I started realizing that when you get in the habit of taking corporate jets and you're eating dinner with lobbyists...

WINFREY: Flying. Yeah.

Sen. OBAMA: ...and--that you start getting detached from the people that you represent. And one of the things I'm always worried about is starting to represent Washington to my constituents instead of representing my constituents in Washington.

WINFREY: OK.

Sen. OBAMA: So, you know, we instituted a policy that we wouldn't fly on other people's jets, which broke my heart when I found out that Oprah was going to South Africa. And...

WINFREY: OK.

Sen. OBAMA: But, you know, I was looking to carve out that Oprah exception but...

WINFREY: Couldn't do it.

Sen. OBAMA: After I instituted that ban on corporate planes, I remember taking commercial. And it was this classic, you know, terrible ride.

WINFREY: Yeah. Three hours, yes.

Sen. OBAMA: Trip out to O'Hare was bad.

WINFREY: Yeah.

Sen. OBAMA: You know, you're in the traffic jam, and you get there, kid's spilled orange juice on my shoes.

WINFREY: Yeah.

Sen. OBAMA: And all that stuff. But as I was finally getting on the plane, the plane had been delayed, I was grumpy, I'm about to get on. And this young man comes up to me and he says, `You're Senator Obama.' And I said, `Yes.' And he said, `I just want you to know I'm 32, 33, I've got a three-year-old son and I've got Parkinson's disease. And although it's not bad yet, they expect that I'll probably never be able to throw a baseball with my son. And so I really want you to work on stem cell research because it may not help me, but it might help somebody else to make sure they're not going through what I'm going through.' And, you know, the--it was just a small moment, but it reminded me of why I got into politics and why you want to make sure that you are always there, present. That's why we...

WINFREY: That wouldn't happen on a private jet.

Sen. OBAMA: And that doesn't happen on a private jet.

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Con: Exactly how long is this policy going to last? It’s simply impossible to run for President without taking private jets.

Con: Let’s fact check this story.  Where’s the Parkinson’s guy?

I saw Obama on Larry King Live last night and for the first time I noticed Obama's subtle resemblance to Richard Nixon.

• Large toothy smile.
• Faint hint of five o'clock shadow.
• Baritone.
• Lawyerly love of equivocation.
• Early national prominence not fully matched by a corresponding record of achievements.

In a sense, this comes back to the most fundamental Q about O: is  he at bottom a garden-variety pol?

To be sure, although Richard Nixon is still widely despised, there's an argument to make that he was among the two or three most effective post-war Presidents.  Detente with Russia and the normalization of relations with China still stand as major accomplishments whose impact few Presidents have matched.  If the bottom line is that Obama is simply a smoother, politically correct version of Tricky Dick, well, that might not be a bad thing.

THE SENIOR SENATOR FROM ILLINOIS THINKS OBAMA SHOULD RUN FOR PRESIDENT.

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SPRINGFIELD—If the release of his second book Tuesday and an appearance on the Oprah Winfrey show on Wednesday weren't enough to keep Barack Obama's name in the headlines, another top Illinois Democrat is urging his senate colleague to run for president.

U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin said Monday that he hopes the first-term senator from Chicago ''seriously considers'' making a bid in 2008.

http://www.southernillinoisan.com/articles/2006/10/16/afternoon_evening/doc4533d597b8c24194220902.txt

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Let’s parse this a little more closely.

If Obama runs and doesn’t do well, Durbin is still senior Senator, and a potential rival for influence in Illinois is weakened.

If Obama runs and has a positive experience, it’s more influence for Illinois, it’s more people asking Durbin to introduce them to Obama, and Durbin is still the senior Senator.

If Obama is President of the United States, that certainly doesn’t hurt Dick Durbin.  It means more Democrat money for Illinois, more Democrat jobs for Durbin and his friends.  And it means a vacant Senatorial seat that  the Democratic governor of Illinois can fill with one of Durbin’s friends.

Pro:  Durbin’s endorsement doesn’t hurt Obama.

Con: It doesn’t mean that much, either.

Dear Obamamaniacs (and Obama skeptics!),

Welcome to SHOULD BARACK OBAMA BE PRESIDENT, a unique contribution to the buzz about Obama.    As I say in the book description, this is a pithy, funny, almost schizophrenic exploration of as many pros and cons about Obama as I could come up with.  I have taken a close look at his public record -- I read every speech the man has ever given -- and I think the book is, as they say, "fair and balanced."  In fact, since this book actually does give both sides of every issue, it is about a trillion times more fair and balanced than say, Fox News or Daily Kos.  If you want to learn more about Obama, and explore the issues that will frame public perception of him in the coming years, this is a good place to start.

In the next few weeks, I will be updating this "living book" with a close analysis of AUDACITY OF HOPE.  Current purchasers will get a free PDF update when it is ready if they send e-mail with proof of purchase (your amazon email receipt) to me at obama@nimblebooks.com.

Stay tuned -- and watch this space for regular news and analysis about Obama!

Cordially,

Fred Zimmerman
Nimble Books LLC