Conventional Tridents and Expected Value

Here’s another case of people not understanding the concept of expected value.. Considering that the cost of an unexpected nuclear exchange must be assumed to be in the trillions of dollars and hundreds of thousands of lives, even a very low risk could produce an unacceptable expected value.

Non-Nuclear Warhead Urged for Trident Missile - washingtonpost.com
The panel also said that few countries, other than Russia and perhaps China, would be able to detect a sub-launched missile “in the next five years,” and that because of the few warheads that would be involved, “the risk of the observing nation’s launching a nuclear retaliatory attack is very low.”

Related posts:

• Russian nuclear doctrine allows attack against “annoying” countries?
• one percent doctrine and expected value
• Nodong-2 range centered on Pyongyang
• classified threat to DDG-1000 may be ballistic homing missile DF-21
• After a nuclear attack?