I have been reading a lot of half-assed articles about the possibility that a Senator will die during this Congress, triggering a switch in party control, so I thought I'd run the real numbers.  This simple spreadsheet combines the ages of all current Senators with a lookup function for life expectancy per the Social Security Administration. This is a naive calculation, it only takes into account gender and age and ignores public information about the relative illness (or health) of particular Senators. Here are the hard numbers, within the actuarial year starting today:

  • 62% chance that a Democratic Senator will die
  • 65% chance that a Republican Senator will die
  • 87% chance that at least one Senator from either party will die